WalterB Online

WalterB Online

Historical Explanation

Abstract

We use historical notions and references all the time. We read or see histories everyday that tell us what happened, how it happened and why it happened; for example, the stories in the daily newspaper or on TV. Recording and recounting History is a major human activity because it is involved in every human life everyday, at the very least as our memories. This is obvious to anyone who has dealt with an Alzheimer's patient, if not to the patient himself.

What are the factors in a true history; i.e., how do we know whether a story is a lie?

That is a very complex question worthy of many books. Indeed, many books have been written about that question, none of them definitive. The stuff of History and its logic are elusive. For that reason, I have always been interested in the Philosophy of History and have developed my own sense of it..

My Bias

Most fundamentally, I think it is impossible to write History or about History (as in meta-History or the Theory of History) "objectively;" i.e., without reference to one's own views. To be objective would require the historian to exist outside History, possibly outside our Universe. Even then, it is not clear that an extra-Universe creature would be unbiased in its observation of our Universe, as that creature would most likely be bound by interactions with its environment as well as the uncertainties applying on ours. I think the best any observer can do is attempt multiple glimpses of whatever lies beyond one's senses, as in the allegory of the Blind Men and the Elephant.

Because I believe Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle is a fundamental physical law, at least in our Universe, I also believe that probability and risk must be basic features of our existence and thought. This is just to posit an epistemological principle that all knowledge, even mathematical knowledge, is limited or probable.¹

That first claim is consistent with my Theory that History is chaotic. But can one make any sense of chaos? The mathematical notion of chaos starts with the observation that the value (output) of some functions changes wildly with small changes of their variables (input). A graphical example is the hyperbola (symbolically, x * y = k or y = k / x) in which the value of y changes very rapidly when 0 < x << 1 for small changes in x near 0. In principle, many chaotic functions are predictable because they are locally calculable, like the hyperbola. An extension of that idea of predictability is the ability to calculate either a limit or a probability. That is, a function is predictable in the sense of a limit when its value is always found within a certain radius around a certain point for given ranges of its variables (the functions is bounded). A function is predictable in the sense of probability if we can calculate the probability of its values falling within certain limits, usually calculated as the mean and standard deviation.

My notion of historical chaos is similar to the probabilistic interpretation of the predictability of a function, with the additional complexity that the functions modeling historical processes change from time to time. That is, there is a sequence of functions f₁, f₂, ... f_n operating on the variables of interest which are themselves subject to selection. For the purposes of human History, this amounts to the idea that different forms of causality operate from time to time and place to place. Thus, in one period and place of History certain behaviors are associated in a given way, whereas at other times and places the same behaviors may be organized differently or completely dissociated. For example, in Medieval Europe, men had vocations which determined their "place" in society, whereas in modern societies people have jobs which are not determinative of their roles outside the workplace. What has changed is the notion of work: a job is not one's predestined role in life, it is not a vocation, it is simply what one does to make a living. Along with that change, the description of "community" has also changed radically by eliminating "place" as a pre-ordained feature of society.² Communities are not defined simply by where they are geographically, or even by commonalities of class and caste. Because modern people are well connected to many others all over the world, communities are now centered on many interests, activities and attitudes - on whatever the members might agree. Because community membership is now fluid and transitory, what constrains and motivates behavior is fleeting; i.e., historic causality changes.

According to my view, then, since it is only possible to make predictions based on statistics, predictions themselves are statistical in nature. I believe no one knows the future or the past certainly. At best, we have (near) certainty in fleeting glimpses of our present experience which, unfortunately, we have never been able to grasp.

Connections

Our minds are set up to accept causal propositions. We think "A causes B," meaning whenever A occurs B surely follows. There may be a causal agent, C, meaning that A causes B in the presence of C. Thus, letting go of the apple will always result in its falling because of gravity. Because this is what always appears to be the case in our experience, and because we do not believe we have any control over the that experience, we believe there is an external world which performs independently of any experience.

To be Improved ...

Someday, I hope.

I started this essay last summer. I wanted to extend the Philosophy of History I outlined in The Graduate Student's Question ("Explaining History"). This is important to me, as it is the basis of my Philosophy of Science and Mathematics.

I am now posting this fragment as I am unable to carry it further due to my health problems.

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1. Mathematical proofs can claim certainty because they are structured that way. Gödel's Proof shows there is an infinity of mathematical propositions which cannot be proven true or false, whereas all the provable ones are countable. The uncertain mathematical status of a proposition does not prevent its application in the workings of the Universe, biology or novels; i.e., our Universe is not beholden to mathematical forms. We use mathematical ideas to explain the Universe because it is convenient for us, but that does not entail the Universe is what we believe it to be.

2. "Place" is a term characteristic of stratified societies with little social mobility. For instance, that term was often used in the segregated American South, where the races were fixed in castes and socio-economic factors determined class. In pre-revolutionary France, each person had to know his or her "place" in society as that was the basis of expected and received treatment. Place in this sense is always a predetermining factor of behavior.

Posted 09/27/2008 06:13:26 AM Last update: 09/27/2008